Category: Coronavirus

My first post was on Thu 12 Mar 2020, six weeks two days, when the president made his first address on the virus. It’s not easy to remember what’s changed.

6 weeks ago

12 Mar 2020 – My first post and this was fucking deep into the problem. At the start, it was mishandled and downplayed by Trump. Govt studies and deliberations were being marked as classified. Racist terms were being floated to distract. Italy is imploding. NBA asshole Rudy Gobert acts like an idiot and causes the shutdown of all sports.

15 Mar 2020 |16 Mar 2020 – My company starts working from home. Airports overrun by arbitrary shutdown causing untold infections. Massive state-by-state shutdowns begin (schools/bars/restaurants). Bernie and Biden debate. DJIA tanks.

18 Mar 2020 – Growth starts looking exponential. I start documenting numbers and projections.

Thu 19 Mar 2020 – Continued racism from the president. Attacks on media as cause/source (?) of virus. Favipiravir/remdesivir/HCQ as potential treatments? China emissions down 25%. 13k US infected.

Sat 21 Mar 2020 – More lies from the pres: no testing, no medical ships, no Google website, and his preemptive shilling of HCQ does not look good. Our numbers start looking worse than other countries.

Mon 23 Mar 2020 – Republican passes stimulus that ends up benefiting large corporations. More proof of HCQ failure.

Tue 24 Mar 2020 – Medical teams discuss morality of choosing who dies.

4 weeks ago

Mon 30 Mar 2020 – Time line of this all went wrong.

Wed 1 Apr 2020 – Are masks useful?

Thu 2 Apr 2020 – Kemp sez he just now learned about asymptomatic infection.

2 weeks ago

Sat 11 Apr 2020 – Govt is stealing supplies from the state; SCOTUS allows people to die in the Wisconsin primary; Nichols: “With each briefing, Trump is making us worse people.”

Now (Sat 25 Apr 2020)

Wed 22 Apr 2020 – Battle for the shutdown, astro-turf to “re-open”, and ???s as to whether we have “contained the virus” (we have not).

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp says he didn’t know asymptomatic people could transmit coronavirus from Newsweek, 2 Apr 2020

Individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.

As shocking as his lack of knowledge on a pandemic that is changing the world society is, it’s important to note: “symptomatic” is to a degree subjective. Some people have higher base temperatures, are they symptomatic? Some cough regularly. Some have IBS. Unless there is an obvious degradation of health, there is really no well-defined checklist of factors to make someone symptomatic. So when is it safe to allow widespread personal integration and travel? I’m going to be an asshole and quote myself:

Viruses that show symptoms faster and that kill their hosts faster will have a more limited spread. COVID-19’s delay and lower fatality rate may be making it more widespread.

from Coronavirus – Wed 18 Mar 2020 – first pass at growth prediction, SARS and MERS

Here’s the timeline knowledge on transmission as best as I could find (I will updated if I get better info):

Continue reading Asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, subclinical

Updated 22 Jun 2020

A really good overview on the current understanding of airborn risk and usefulness of masks:

Everyone Thinks They’re Right About Masks from The Atlantic

Long (and def worth a full read), but summary points:

• “Aerosol” distribution can mean either heavy droplets or mist. No solid answers to the risks of either. Studies still ongoing and may not be answered for years.
• Presence of aerosol-distributed COVID-19 does not necessarily mean risk since the existence of RNA “is like a fingerprint” in that it means the virus had been present, but may no longer be.
• Even the most crowded sites in Wuhan had <12 particles per meter^3. SARS takes 43-280 for infection.
• Safest: go outside for fresh air but stay out of even small crowds or small spaces with others, open your windows every now and then.
• Surfaces still the primary risk.
• Utility of masks also has no solid answers. Homemade masks (shirt, towel) can block 69-83% of particles. Best possible use currently is to protect others from you.
• The science is moving (necessarily) quickly and so advice is also. Be wary of pop science headlines.

Updated 22 Jun 2020

Q&A: Masks and COVID-19 – What is WHO’s view on masks?

Aside from medical masks for health professionals and those at risk, WHO recommends cloth masks only in high infectious areas and crowded or enclosed spaces:

Non-medical, fabric masks are being used by many people in public areas, but there has been limited evidence on their effectiveness and WHO does not recommend their widespread use among the public for control of COVID-19. However, for areas of widespread transmission, with limited capacity for implementing control measures and especially in settings where physical distancing of at least 1 metre is not possible – such as on public transport, in shops or in other confined or crowded environments – WHO advises governments to encourage the general public to use non-medical fabric masks.